MINDGAMES: A Live Arena for Evaluating Social and Strategic Reasoning in Multi-Agent LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as interactive agents, yet their capacity for social and strategic reasoning over extended interaction remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations rely on static vignettes or single-game benchmarks that cannot capture the sustained, multi-faceted reasoning that real-world multi-agent settings demand. We introduce Mindgames, a multi-game arena and evaluation platform for LLM agents that operationalizes complementary reasoning demands relevant to ``theory of mind'': belief attribution under hidden information, opponent modeling through repeated strategic interaction, cooperative inference under knowledge asymmetries, and sustained deception in social deduction. Built on TextArena, Mindgames provides a unified interaction interface, TrueSkill-based rating, and full trajectory logging across four game environments. We instantiate Mindgames through a 2025 competition cycle hosted at a major AI conference, which assessed 944 submitted agents from 76 teams across four games: Colonel Blotto, Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, Codenames, and Secret Mafia. Our analysis surfaces both agent-level and evaluation-level limitations: brittle rule adherence remains a major bottleneck, top-performing systems repeatedly rely on explicit structural scaffolding, and leaderboard validity differs sharply across environments. In particular, failure-heavy environments can reward robustness to opponent errors as much as strategic ability, with Secret Mafia exhibiting a pronounced error-survival confound in this cycle. We release a dataset of 29,571 multi-agent games with turn-level observations, actions, and rewards, together with MG-Ref, a deterministic offline tournament protocol that scores new agents against a frozen reference pool of top-ranked, low-error Stage~II submissions under the same error-attribution lens used in this analysis.

MMSkills: Towards Multimodal Skills for General Visual Agents

Reusable skills have become a core substrate for improving agent capabilities, yet most existing skill packages encode reusable behavior primarily as textual prompts, executable code, or learned routines. For visual agents, however, procedural knowledge is inherently multimodal: reuse depends not only on what operation to perform, but also on recognizing the relevant state, interpreting visual evidence of progress or failure, and deciding what to do next. We formalize this requirement as multimodal procedural knowledge and address three practical challenges: (I) what a multimodal skill package should contain; (II) where such packages can be derived from public interaction experience; and (III) how agents can consult multimodal evidence at inference time without excessive image context or over-anchoring to reference screenshots. We introduce MMSkills, a framework for representing, generating, and using reusable multimodal procedures for runtime visual decision making. Each MMSkill is a compact, state-conditioned package that couples a textual procedure with runtime state cards and multi-view keyframes. To construct these packages, we develop an agentic trajectory-to-skill Generator that transforms public non-evaluation trajectories into reusable multimodal skills through workflow grouping, procedure induction, visual grounding, and meta-skill-guided auditing. To use them, we introduce a branch-loaded multimodal skill agent: selected state cards and keyframes are inspected in a temporary branch, aligned with the live environment, and distilled into structured guidance for the main agent. Experiments across GUI and game-based visual-agent benchmarks show that MMSkills consistently improve both frontier and smaller multimodal agents, suggesting that external multimodal procedural knowledge complements model-internal priors.

AgentDisCo: Towards Disentanglement and Collaboration in Open-ended Deep Research Agents

In this paper, we present AgentDisCo, a novel Disentangled and Collaborative agentic architecture that formulates deep research as an adversarial optimization problem between information exploration and exploitation. Unlike existing approaches that conflate these two processes into a single module, AgentDisCo employs a critic agent to evaluate generated outlines and refine search queries, and a generator agent to retrieve updated results and revise outlines accordingly. The iteratively refined outline is then passed to a downstream report writer that synthesizes a comprehensive research report. The overall workflow supports both handcrafted and automatically discovered design strategies via a meta-optimization harness, in which the generator agent is repurposed as a scoring agent to evaluate critic outputs and generate quality signals. Powerful code-generation agents (e.g., Claude-Code, Codex) systematically explore agent configurations and construct a policy bank, a structured repository of reusable design strategies, enabling the framework to self-refine without extensive human intervention. We evaluate AgentDisCo on three established deep research benchmarks (DeepResearchBench, DeepConsult, DeepResearchGym) using Gemini-2.5-Pro, achieving performance comparable to or surpassing leading closed-source systems. Observing that existing benchmarks inadequately reflect real-world user needs, we introduce GALA (General AI Life Assistants), a benchmark that mines latent research interests from users' historical browsing behavior. We further develop a rendering agent that converts research reports into visually rich poster presentations, and demonstrate an end-to-end product, AutoResearch Your Interest, which delivers personalized deep research recommendations derived from individual browsing histories.

Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Preference

Reward models are fundamental to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), yet real-world datasets are inevitably corrupted by noisy preference. Conventional training objectives tend to overfit these errors, while existing denoising approaches often rely on homogeneous noise assumptions that fail to capture the complexity of linguistic preferences. To handle these challenges, we propose SelectiveRM, a framework grounded in optimal transport. We first devise a Joint Consistency Discrepancy to align the distribution of model predictions with preference data. Furthermore, to address the limitation of strict mass conservation which compels the model to fit outliers, we incorporate a Mass Relaxation mechanism via partial transport. This enables the autonomous exclusion of samples with noisy preference that contradict semantic consistency. Theoretically, we demonstrate that SelectiveRM optimizes a tighter upper bound on the unobserved clean risk. Extensive experiments validate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across diverse benchmarks.

Foundation Models to Unlock Real-World Evidence from Nationwide Medical Claims

Evidence derived from large-scale real-world data (RWD) is increasingly informing regulatory evaluation and healthcare decision-making. Administrative claims provide population-scale, longitudinal records of healthcare utilization, expenditure, and detailed coding of diagnoses, procedures, and medications, yet their potential as a substrate for healthcare foundation models remains largely unexplored. Here we present ReClaim, a generative transformer trained from scratch on 43.8 billion medical events from more than 200 million enrollees in the MarketScan claims data spanning 2008-2022. ReClaim models longitudinal trajectories across diagnoses, procedures, medications, and expenditure, and was scaled to 140 million, 700 million, and 1.7 billion parameters. Across over 1,000 disease-onset prediction tasks, ReClaim achieved a mean AUC of 75.6%, substantially outperforming disease-specific LightGBM (66.3%) and the transformer-based Delphi model (69.4%), with the largest gains for rare diseases. These advantages held across retrospective and prospective evaluations and in external validation on two independent datasets. Performance improved monotonically with scale, and post-training added 13.8 percentage points over pre-training alone. Beyond disease prediction, ReClaim captured financial outcomes and improved real-world evidence (RWE) analyses: for healthcare expenditure forecasting it increased explained variance from 0.28 to 0.37 relative to LightGBM, and in a target trial emulation it reduced systematic bias by 72% on average relative to Delphi. Together, these results establish administrative claims as a scalable substrate for healthcare foundation models and show that learned representations generalize across time periods and data sources, supporting disease surveillance, expenditure forecasting, and RWE generation.

MuSEAgent: A Multimodal Reasoning Agent with Stateful Experiences

Research agents have recently achieved significant progress in information seeking and synthesis across heterogeneous textual and visual sources. In this paper, we introduce MuSEAgent, a multimodal reasoning agent that enhances decision-making by extending the capabilities of research agents to discover and leverage stateful experiences. Rather than relying on trajectory-level retrieval, we propose a stateful experience learning paradigm that abstracts interaction data into atomic decision experiences through hindsight reasoning. These experiences are organized into a quality-filtered experience bank that supports policy-driven experience retrieval at inference time. Specifically, MuSEAgent enables adaptive experience exploitation through complementary wide- and deep-search strategies, allowing the agent to dynamically retrieve multimodal guidance across diverse compositional semantic viewpoints. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MuSEAgent consistently outperforms strong trajectory-level experience retrieval baselines on both fine-grained visual perception and complex multimodal reasoning tasks. These results validate the effectiveness of stateful experience modeling in improving multimodal agent reasoning.

ImplicitRM: Unbiased Reward Modeling from Implicit Preference Data for LLM alignment

Reward modeling represents a long-standing challenge in reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning language models. Current reward modeling is heavily contingent upon experimental feedback data with high collection costs. In this work, we study \textit{implicit reward modeling} -- learning reward models from implicit human feedback (e.g., clicks and copies) -- as a cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in implicit reward modeling: (1) Implicit preference data lacks definitive negative samples, which makes standard positive-negative classification methods inapplicable; (2) Implicit preference data suffers from user preference bias, where different responses have different propensities to elicit user feedback actions, which exacerbates the difficulty of distinguishing definitive negative samples. To address these challenges, we propose ImplicitRM, which aims to learn unbiased reward models from implicit preference data. ImplicitRM stratifies training samples into four latent groups via a stratification model. Building on this, it derives a learning objective through likelihood maximization, which we prove is theoretically unbiased, effectively resolving both challenges. Experiments demonstrate that ImplicitRM learns accurate reward models across implicit preference datasets. Code is available on our project website.

Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.

CausalRM: Causal-Theoretic Reward Modeling for RLHF from Observational User Feedbacks

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.

GlyphBanana: Advancing Precise Text Rendering Through Agentic Workflows

Despite recent advances in generative models driving significant progress in text rendering, accurately generating complex text and mathematical formulas remains a formidable challenge. This difficulty primarily stems from the limited instruction-following capabilities of current models when encountering out-of-distribution prompts. To address this, we introduce GlyphBanana, alongside a corresponding benchmark specifically designed for rendering complex characters and formulas. GlyphBanana employs an agentic workflow that integrates auxiliary tools to inject glyph templates into both the latent space and attention maps, facilitating the iterative refinement of generated images. Notably, our training-free approach can be seamlessly applied to various Text-to-Image (T2I) models, achieving superior precision compared to existing baselines. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed workflow. Associated code is publicly available at https://github.com/yuriYanZeXuan/GlyphBanana.